Black's Property Blog

Adrian Black delivers critical property market insights and the influences, behaviour and money driving them.

UKIP, uncertainty and the flight to quality

UKIP, uncertainty and the flight to quality

by Adrian Black, Thursday 20 November 2014

Political uncertainty will increase this week – UKIP are roughly 50 to 1 on to win the Rochester by-election.  The Conservatives are quoted at roughly 16 to 1 against. If the outcome is as the odds predict and UKIP win the seat then we will see increasing uncertainty up to Christmas and probably beyond.  We will find out the result tomorrow.  The cause of unce

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What is going to happen in the next 6 months in the west prime central London property market?

What is going to happen in the next 6 months in the west prime central London property market?

by Adrian Black, Thursday 13 November 2014

To consider this we must first look at the main background influences. Firstly, political sentiment will be volatile in the run up to the general election, mansion tax concerns will heighten and there will also be a lot more discussion on increasing the Annual Tax on Enveloped Dwellings ‘ATED’ (please see my first blog of 1st September 2014). Secondly, interest rates will b

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£ per square foot and sold price highlights

£ per square foot and sold price highlights

by Adrian Black, Monday 20 October 2014

We have added our latest upload in www.youeye.co.uk, your property research tool. Highlight sales include: 1) An apartment in Knightsbridge for £7m at £4,150 per square foot. 2) 2 Cottesmore Gardens for £19.5m at  £3,618 per square foot and 3) 81 Victoria Road for £13m at £2,743 per square foot.  

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Government borrows £11.6bn in August

Government borrows £11.6bn in August

by Adrian Black, Wednesday 24 September 2014

Good growth but high government borrowing means new ways required to raise more tax. Government borrowed £45.5bn for first 5 months of financial year, this equates to £2.6bn more than last year! National debt currently £1.3 trillion - 77% of UK GDP.  

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Comments on FT article on ways to cool the property market

Comments on FT article on ways to cool the property market

by Adrian Black, Thursday 11 September 2014

Good article in FT on ways to cool the property market - that said I don't think we should be cooling it but we should be making it bigger, also I think an important aspect was missed.  For the financiers amongst us we all understand capital adequacy - one great way of managing lending is to change weights on risk assets and hence the capital required to support them. Some oth

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Expect more ATED tax take

Expect more ATED tax take

by Adrian Black, Monday 01 September 2014

The Government needs to raise more tax.  The economy is growing and the government borrowed £107bn in fiscal year to March 2014.  I accept that tax take lags growth but the growth numbers are improving and the borrowing requirement remains stubbornly large. The Office for Budget Responsibility "OBR" is currently forecasting that it will not be until 2018-

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Latest £/sq ft info loaded on youeye.co.uk

Latest £/sq ft info loaded on youeye.co.uk

by Adrian Black, Wednesday 20 August 2014

One of the key take away points from our upload was that for a house in Ilchester Place, W14 - over £3,000 a square foot was achieved.

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Latest £/sq ft info loaded - London prime residential market slowing

Latest £/sq ft info loaded - London prime residential market slowing

by Adrian Black, Friday 11 July 2014

We have updated www.youeye.co.uk with the latest price and floor area information. The prime London residential market is definitely slowing - it's too early to say by how much but it's highly likely that the spend on property in 2014 will be less than in 2013. The election in 2015 is certainly having a big dampening affect. Our popular total spend graph (ou

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