Black's Property Blog

Adrian Black delivers critical property market insights and the influences, behaviour and money driving them.

UKIP, uncertainty and the flight to quality

by Adrian Black, Thursday 20 November 2014

Political uncertainty will increase this week – UKIP are roughly 50 to 1 on to win the Rochester by-election.  The Conservatives are quoted at roughly 16 to 1 against.



If the outcome is as the odds predict and UKIP win the seat then we will see increasing uncertainty up to Christmas and probably beyond.  We will find out the result tomorrow.  The cause of uncertainty will in part be around speculation that more members of parliament will join UKIP, increasing the likelihood of a coalition and lots of horse trading post the election in May.



The flight to quality in the west prime central London residential sales property market will continue to be amplified.



Also, take great care when drawing any conclusions from average price statistics. Turnover will be low so a small number of high value sales or a small number of low value sales can skew the averages beyond meaning.  The best tool for analysing the market is YOUeye, available here: www.youeye.co.uk

 

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