Adrian Black delivers critical property market insights and the influences, behaviour and money driving them.
Never has there been the degree of concern in west prime central London as existed before this General Election.
The triple spectre of mansion tax, abolition of non-dom status and accelerated Annual Tax on Enveloped Dwellings “ATED” (which will probably continue) resulted in a large fall in both spend and transaction volumes.
We estimate that half the money was spent on half the number of transactions in Q1 2015 compared with Q1 2014 as per the graph below:
Similarly, I expect Q2 2015 to be subdued but interest will return to the previously virtually vapourised top end. Long-term political risk has not disappeared. The recent political campaigns suggested policies that, if implemented, would have a significant impact on property values in central London. However, the 5 year outlook is now much more supportive and stable.